绿新院IGDP：广东中长期低碳转型路径研究——基于EPS模型

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广东中长期低碳转型路径研究 ——基于 EPS 模型 2025 年 9 月 报告摘要 关于绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP） 绿色创新发展研究院 (Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress, iGDP)，2014 年成立于北京，是专注绿色低碳发展的 公益性国际化智库。iGDP 自成立以来，根植我国绿色低碳实践，面向全球应对气候变化进程，服务决策者、实践者、投资者， 通过跨学科、系统性、实证性的研究，推动能源和气候变化解决方案的科学化和精细化，与多方合作推动绿色低碳议题的多元 化和国际化的沟通，提供有国际视野和前瞻思考的解决方案及公共知识产品，为全球可持续发展做出贡献。 报告编写团队 绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP）：李鑫迪、杨鹂、袁雅婷、宋曼娇、朱彤昕、奚溪、陈美安、胡敏 中国科学院广州能源研究所：刘桢、廖翠萍、黄莹、谢鹏程 致 谢 报告编写团队真诚感谢能源创新政策和技术有限责任公司（EI）团队对本研究的长期技术与研究支持。 感谢广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院教授曾雪兰对报告的宝贵建议。 感谢绿色创新发展研究院同事吕雅宁对报告传播的支持。 感谢绿色创新发展研究院同事包林洁对报告的排版。 免责声明 本报告编写所采用的数据均来自公开的信息和渠道，我们力求准确和完整，但难免偶有疏漏。报告基于初步 成果撰写，用于讨论和交流，内容会随下一阶段研究成果进行修正、更新或增减。本报告仅属于作者的研究 成果，不代表所在机构、咨询专家的立场和观点。 引用建议 李鑫迪，刘桢，廖翠萍，黄莹，谢鹏程，杨鹂，袁雅婷，宋曼娇，朱彤昕，奚溪，陈美安，胡敏 . (2025). 广东中长期低碳转型路径研究——基于 EPS 模型 . 北京：绿色创新发展研究院 联系方式 绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP）：igdpoffice@igdp.cn 目 录 执行摘要············································································1 第一章 广东低碳发展现状 ·····························································2 1.1 社会发展 ··········································································· 2 1.2 能源与排放情况 ····································································· 3 1.3 低碳转型政策体系与整体目标·························································· 6 1.4 低碳转型成效及趋势 ································································· 8 第二章 研究方法和情景设置 ·························································· 12 2.1 模型介绍 ·········································································· 12 2.2 数据来源 ·········································································· 13 2.3 情景设置 ·········································································· 13 第三章 广东能源和碳排放展望 ························································ 15 3.1 温室气体排放 ······································································ 15 3.2 能源消费 ·········································································· 17 3.3 分部门低碳转型 ···································································· 18 第四章 广东省碳中和实现路径及社会经济影响 ·········································· 29 4.1 双碳情景下主要低碳发展目标························································· 29 4.2 经济社会影响 ······································································ 29 4.3 政策路径及减排贡献 ································································ 30 第五章 总结及建议 ·································································· 35 附录 1：广东省 1+N 及“十四五”低碳发展政策一览 ······································ 36 附录 2：情景设置 ··································································· 38 图目录 图 1 广东省产业布局 ···················································································2 图 2 2022 年广东一次能源消费结构 ······································································3 图 3 2022 年广东能源相关 CO2 排放结构 ··································································4 图 4 2020 年广东省发电量结构 ··········································································4 图 5 广东省 2019 年制造业分行业能源消费占比（左：广东，右：全国） ······································5 图 6 2020 年建筑运行阶段用能结构（全国与广东） ························································5 图 7 2020 年广东省非二氧化碳温室气体排放结构 ··························································6 图 8 广东省双碳“1+N”政策体系示意图 ····································································7 图 9 广东省经济发展与能源消费、排放脱钩趋势 ···························································8 图 10 广东省工业生产总值和能耗水平 ····································································9 图 11 EPS 模型计算流向图 ············································································· 12 图 12 各情景二氧化碳排放趋势 ········································································· 15 图 13 各情景温室气体排放趋势（不考虑碳汇） ··························································· 16 图 14 双碳情景下非二气体排放变化 ····································································· 17 图 15 各情景一次能源消费结构变化 ····································································· 17 图 16 双碳情景分部门 GHG 排放（不考虑间接排放） ······················································ 18 图 17 双碳情景分部门 GHG 排放（考虑间接排放） ························································ 19 图 18 各情景电力部门二氧化碳排放趋势 ································································· 19 图 19 各情景主要部门用电需求变化趋势 ································································· 20 图 20 各情景关键年份发电量结构 ······································································· 21 图 21 各情景工业部门二氧化碳气体排放趋势 ····························································· 22 图 22 各情景工业部门温室气体排放趋势 ································································· 22 图 23 各情景工业部门非二温室气体排放趋势（万吨 CO2e） ················································ 23 图 24 各情景工业部门能源消费量（万吨标煤，仅包含能源利用） ··········································· 23 图 25 工业分行业二氧化碳直接排放（政策情景与双碳情景） ··············································· 24 图 26 工业分行业二氧化碳直接与电力间接排放（政策情景与双碳情景） ····································· 24 图 27 各情景建筑部门 GHG 排放变化趋势 ································································ 25 图 28 2020 年广东建筑部门用能源消费结构 ······························································ 26 图 29 各情景建筑部门用能变化趋势 ····································································· 26 图 30 各情景周转量变化趋势 ··········································································· 27 图 31 各情景交通部门能源消费结构 ····································································· 28 图 32 双碳情景下各行业增加值变化 ····································································· 28 图 33 2030 年前达峰重点政策（CO2，双碳情景 2020-2030 累计减排潜力） ·································· 31 图 34 碳中和重点政策（GHG，双碳情景 2020-2060 累计减排潜力） ········································ 31 图 35 碳中和重点政策（GHG，双碳情景 2030-2060 累计减排潜力） ········································ 32 表目录 表 1 广东省碳达峰碳中和重要时间点和目标 ······························································ 7 表 2 “十四五”期间广东省能源系统低碳转型相关指标与国家对比 ············································· 8 表 3 电力部门“十四五”目标 ············································································· 9 表 4 情景说明 ························································································14 表 5 双碳情景各部门电气化率变化趋势 ··································································18 表 6 双碳情景主要政策指标表现 ········································································29 表 7 双碳情景下工业各行业相对冻结情景节能量 ··························································33 1 2025 年 9 月 执行摘要 广东省作为我国经济和人口大省，能源消费和碳排放量均居全国前列，但其单位 GDP 能耗和碳强度处于全国 领先水平。近年来，广东省通过产业结构优化、能源结构调整和政策创新，在低碳发展方面取得了显著成效。作 为能源消费大省，加之本地可再生能源资源有限，广东也面临诸多低碳转型挑战。 为通过量化模型支持广东中长期低碳转型研究，本报告基于能源政策模拟模型（EPS）对广东省实现“双碳”目 标的具体路径进行研究。通过 EPS 模型模拟了三种情景下广东省 2020 年至 2060 年的能源消费和碳排放路径。 研究结果显示，在现有政策情景下，广东省二氧化碳排放可在 2030 年前达峰，峰值约为 6.7 亿吨，但若延续 现有政策强度，在 2060 年仍将剩余 4 亿吨排放。此外，广东需要重点关注提高非化石能源发电量的比重，确保到 2030 年达到 40% 左右，以保证 2030 年前碳排放达峰。 在双碳路径下，2030 年后需进一步加强政策力度，在节能、电气化、以及非二氧化碳温室气体减排等方面重 点施力，并开始全面在电力和钢铁、水泥、化工行业部署 CCUS，以实现 2060 年碳中和目标。 报告探讨了广东省整体的能源消费及排放变化趋势，并聚焦工业、建筑、交通和电力等关键部门的低碳转型 路径，针对关键政策路径提出建议。经过不同时间段的政策减排潜力分析，识别出包括提高可再生能源占比、严 格控制煤电发展、提升工业电气化水平、推广新能源交通工具、加强建筑节能与电气化、完善电力市场机制、加 强含氟气体减排控制等重点政策，希望能对广东省“双碳”战略的决策与实施提供科学支撑。 ©Unsplash 广东中长期低碳转型路径研究——基于 EPS 模型 2 第一章 广东低碳发展现状 1.1 社会发展 广东省是经济和人口大省，地区生产总值连续 35 年保持在全国第一，经济总量居全国首位，财政自给能力较 强，2023 年人均 GDP 达到 10.7 万元。广东省也是能源消费大省，电力消费居于全国前列，但能效水平相对较高。 2023 年，广东省以约占全国 7% 的能源消费和 5% 的碳排放，支撑了约占全国 9% 的常住人口和 10.8% 的经济总量， 单位 GDP 能耗仅为全国平均水平的 67% [1]。 “十三五”期间，广东省深入推进供给侧结构性改革，三次产业结构由 2015 年的 4.6:42.8:52.6 调整为 2020 年的 4.3:39.2:56.5，第二产业结构显著降低，第三产业占比明显提升，初步形成以先进制造业为支撑、现代服务 业为主导的现代产业体系，培育电子信息、绿色石化、智能家电等 7 个万亿级产业集群，5G 产业、数字经济等战 略性新兴产业迅速发展、规模全国领先。 到“十四五” “十五五” 时期，广东省将持续加快产业结构优化升级，培育发展十大战略性支柱产业集群、十大 战略性新兴产业集群，提前布局六大未来产业（图 1）；大力发展绿色低碳产业，着眼先进核能、海上风电装备等 优势产业打造沿海新能源产业带和新能源产业集聚区，积极谋划氢能、储能、智慧能源、二氧化碳捕集利用与封 存等产业发展；遏制高耗能高排放行业低水平项目盲目发展，压减饱和产能，提高准入门槛，淘汰落后产能，提 升行业整体能效水平。绿色低碳产业将成为广东省经济增长新动能和可持续增长极。 图 1 广东省产业布局 3 2025 年 9 月 1.2 能源与排放情况 广东省对我国二氧化碳排放总量贡献相对较大，但碳排放强度处于全国领先水平。2022 年，广东省能源相关 二氧化碳排放为 5.6 亿吨，约占全国总排放的 5% 左右，碳强度在全国范围内处于较低水平，仅高于北京和上海。 同时，广东省拥有完善的政策体系、强大的经济基础、完备的产业体系以及丰富的碳汇资源，与低碳减排相关各 领域市场化均走在全国前列。 可见，广东省有条件率先实现“双碳”目标，也将对支撑我国“双碳”目标实现发挥至关重要的作用。一方面， 广东省率先探索出可行的路径和有效的模式，为我国其他地区提供参考和激励作用；另一方面，尽早实现目标也 将为其他高碳地区绿色低碳转型腾挪出宝贵的空间。 2022 年，广东省煤炭消费占全省一次能源消费的 35%。能源相关二氧化碳排放主要来自火力发电，占比高达 52%，其次为工业部门、交通部门、和建筑运行产生的排放，这几