中国制造2025：实现技术领先的代价研究报告（英文版）

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About the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China 89 About the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Made in China 2025: The Cost of Technological Leadership The information contained herein is based on input and analysis from December 2024 to March 2025. The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as business or legal advice on any specific facts or circumstances. No users of this report should act or refrain from acting on the basis of any content included without seeking appropriate professional advice. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China does not assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the information provided in the report. © 2025 European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, all rights reserved. This study may not be reproduced either in part or in full without the prior written consent of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Cover image © Harry Zhang, European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, all rights reserved. TABLE OF CONTENTS About the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.............................................1 President's foreword..............................................................................................................2 China’s industrial policy timeline..........................................................................................3 The MIC2025 technological leadership score card.............................................................5 Executive summary................................................................................................................7 Introduction: MIC2025 ten years on...................................................................................12 Progress in MIC2025’s key sectors: different stages of the same process....................19 ‘New productive forces’: a re-packaging of MIC2025? .....................................................39 Recommendations ...............................................................................................................43 Trade data methodology.......................................................................................................45 Methodology..........................................................................................................................46 Abbreviations........................................................................................................................47 About the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (European Chamber) was founded in 2000 by 51 member companies that shared a goal of establishing a common voice for the various business sectors of the European Union (EU) and European businesses operating in China. It is a member-driven, non-profit, fee-based organisation with a core structure of 23 working groups and 12 fora representing European business in China. The European Chamber now has nearly 1,700 members in seven chapters operating in nine cities: Beijing, Nanjing, Shanghai, Shenyang, South China (Guangzhou and Shenzhen), Southwest China (Chengdu and Chongqing) and Tianjin. Each chapter is managed at the local level by local boards reporting directly to the Chamber’s Executive Committee. The Chamber is recognised by the European Commission and the Chinese authorities as the official voice of European business in China. It is registered as a foreign chamber of commerce with the Ministry of Civil Affairs. The European Chamber is part of the growing network of European Business Organisations. This network connects European business associations and chambers of commerce located in over 50 third markets around the world. Mission Statement: As a member-based organisation, the European Chamber seeks to: • Ensure greater market access and a level playing field for European companies in China. • Improve market conditions for all businesses in China. • Facilitate networking among members and stakeholders. • Bring specific information relevant to its members on doing business in China. • Update its members on economic trends and legislation in China. Principles: • We are an independent, non-profit organisation governed by our members. • We work for the benefit of European business as a whole. • We operate as a single, networked organisation across China. • We maintain close, constructive relations with the Chinese and European authorities while retaining our independence. • We seek the broadest possible representation of European business in China within our membership: large, medium and small enterprises from all business sectors and EU Member States throughout China. • We operate in accordance with Chinese law and regulations. • We treat all our members, business partners and employees with fairness and integrity. 1 President Foreword President Foreword Made in China 2025: The Cost of Technological Leadership 2 President's foreword In the decade since the Made in China 2025 (MIC2025) initiative was launched, China has made unprecedented gains in its advanced manufacturing capabilities. The country is now the world’s sole manufacturing superpower, accounting for 29 per cent of global manufacturing value added as of 2023, nearing that of the European Union (EU) and United States (US) combined. 1&2 China has achieved leadership or near-leadership in a wide range of industries identified as strategically important under the MIC2025 plan, while becoming highly influential in others, and the size of China’s market and its ability to build scale and optimise industrial processes have propelled many Chinese manufacturers into globally dominant positions. There is no doubt that the MIC2025 industrial policy, in tandem with an industrious workforce in adaptable and innovative companies, played a critical role in these advances. But, the progress that China has made carries potentially significant consequences. Today, more than a third of shipping containers exported globally originate from China and the nation is the largest trading partner of 120 countries. 3 Also, China’s increasing hold on strategic industries is likely to lead to an escalation of trade tensions with many of these partners, including the EU and the US. In part, this is due to the fact that Europe and the US have historically held leadership positions in many of the strategic technologies that are the focus of the MIC2025 initiative, and they will therefore take whatever actions they feel necessary in order to both continue competing and retain strong capabilities in areas that have economic security implications. However, it is also due to the perception that China has been able to make such remarkable advances due to an industrial policy that is based on top-down, non-market principles. With China seemingly set to rely further on exports for a sizeable chunk of its growth, MIC2025 products may increasingly struggle to find acceptance in key international markets. MIC2025 has also resulted in adverse consequences for the Chinese economy, including involution and overcapacity in many of the sectors that performed best on their targets. Today, China faces a choice between continuing MIC2025-style policies, at a cost to the domestic economy and at the risk of wider global pushback, or taking a more targeted and sustainable approach to technological self-reliance that minimises negative externalities. In the face of unprecedented challenges to the global trading system, the latter presents an opportunity for China to demonstrate to reliable partners, like the EU, that it is committed to fostering a long-term, mutually beneficial trade relationship and ensuring that its business environment provides the stability and predictability that investors require. Jens Eskelund President European Union Chamber of Commerce in China 1 Baldwin, R, China is the world’s sole manufacturing superpower: A line sketch of the rise, VoxEU, 17 th January 2024, viewed 21 st March 2025, <https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/ china-worlds-